Predictions for NL's Next New Species

Newfoundland and Labrador’s birding history is fascinating. Due to our position on the edge of North America, and the isolation of the island of Newfoundland off the coast of the Atlantic, NL acts as a first point of contact for wayward vagrant birds from Europe and a last point of land from North American birds trying to migrate over the continent. Oceanographic conditions generated from the interaction of cold and warm currents off our coast, and numerous weather phenomena all add to the propensity of birds to find their way to our shores.

Documenting rare birds in Newfoundland historically involved the collection of weak or dead individuals, or by shooting live birds - perhaps with the purpose of sharing them with a museum (or even private collections). Historically, the frequency of rare vagrant birds showing up in NL has been high, and well-kept collections of odd specimens allowed for good documentation and study of the rare birds. Currently, the list of birds that have occurred in Newfoundland and Labrador sits at a solid 427 species as of February 2025, when I write this. In fact only ~150-170 species actually breed in the province indicating that most of the species on our list are vagrants. 

Anonymous list of predictions

In the late 1970s, a hypothetical list of new birds for the island of Newfoundland was typewritten, and has been on top of a filing cabinet containing comprehensive information on NL’s bird records that sits in Dr. Bill Montevecchi’s office to this day. The list is pictured here: 

Hypothetical List for next bird species in NL, unknown author. 

As taxonomy and nomenclature change, outdated names can be confusing. So, for clarity, here’s the updated names for the old names on this list: 

• Yellow-nosed Albatross = Atlantic Yellow-nosed Albatross
• Little Shearwater = Barolo Shearwater
• Audubon’s Shearwater = Sargasso Shearwater
• Ringed Plover = Common Ringed Plover

This list is an interesting one, not only because we don’t know who wrote it (Bill says it was not him, but maybe the late great

John Wells), but because it contained some species that should probably have been documented in Newfoundland by this time such as Stilt Sandpiper and Eastern Phoebe. The list also contained more challenging birds to identify like Common Ringed Plover and the newly described species South Polar Skua which, at the time, became quickly known as an expected sighting off Newfoundland but hadn’t previously been separated from Great Skua. On the list were species which had only been documented as dead one-off vagrants, like Long-eared Owl which had been found dead in Labrador in 1930 but had never been seen on the island of Newfoundland, and Upland Sandpiper which had the same story from June of 1981 (after this list was written), but had yet to have been seen in Newfoundland.

Many of the predictions on the 1970s list came true, but not all. To this day, all but one of the first five seabirds on the list remain unreported for the province of NL: Black-browed Albatross is the exception, which was first seen July 15, 1980, and has been documented on six subsequent occasions. 

Common Ringed Plover found in Portugal Cove South, NL, 2018

It was banded three years earlier in Southern England

Once rare enough to be a hypothetical addition to the provincial list, this species is now nearly annual

📷Alvan Buckley

Starting a tradition:

As detailed in The Bullbird Vol 4 Issue 1 from January 1989, new additions to the Newfoundland bird list were popping up annually in the eighties thanks to dedicated birders across the island, and Bruce Mactavish himself under the pseudonym “Dr. Dovekie” authored that “if Newfoundland’s present birdwatching effort were to remain as good or get better over the next 15 years or more, probably not a year would pass without at least one new addition”. Always prescient, Bruce was right, and new additions came nearly annually for years following his prediction, only getting better as time went on. The “easy” birds to add to the list were added, and eventually some extraordinary additions were made – such as the incredible Steller’s Sea-Eagle  that has been returning to NL now for three years straight – have made the list. 

In that edition of The Bullbird, Bruce and John Wells decided to try their hand at predicting the next species they anticipated for the Newfoundland list, which didn’t include sightings for Labrador at the time. They each chose 10 species, resulting in a combined predicted list of 15 new species. The five species that they both predicted were:  />

Long-billed Dowitcher (came true Nov 6, 2005, and there are now a total of four records)

Red-headed Woodpecker (came true Oct 21, 1991, and there are now two records)

Varied Thrush (came true Mar 4, 1998, and there are now seven records)

White-eyed Vireo (came true Oct 3, 1991, now there are dozens of records with a record count of four in Autumn 2024)

Worm-eating Warbler (came true Sep 12, 1993, and there are now 6 records)

An abiding Long-billed Dowitcher, St. John’s, NL, 2021, 

📷Bobby Blackmore.

The other ten species they predicted were:

Bruce:

• Broad-winged Hawk (seen in Labrador Sep 19, 2019 but still not observed in NF)
• Roseate Tern (came true Jun 11, 2006, total of 5 records to date)
• Marsh Wren (came true Oct 9, 1993, now there are 24 records)
• Wood Thrush (came true May 18, 1992, with a total of 10 records now)
• Connecticut Warbler (came true Sep 28, 1996, with three records in total)

John:

• Black-throated Gray Warbler (came true Nov 1, 1992, and the second record came in Autumn 2024)
• Eastern Bluebird (a convincing written description from May 24, 1993 was accepted, but there continues to be no other records and no photos!)
• Gull-billed Tern (came true Jul 9, 2003, with a total of six records involving nine individuals to date)
• LeConte’s Sparrow (remains unreported in the province)
• Brambling (came true Apr 18, 2022)

As readers can deduce, their predictions were spot on, but both retained some wishful thinking. 36 years later, and Newfoundland still doesn’t have a Broad-winged Hawk record, nor does the province have a single LeConte’s Sparrow record. Some predictions took decades to come to fruition, and John never saw his Brambling on NL soil.

The famous second-ever Black-throated Gray Warbler in St. John’s, NL, 2024

📷Colin Peddle

Present Day

Throughout the years since, some informal predictions were made in tableside conversations and online forums, such as a prediction from Dr. Bill Montevecchi that House Finch, Tufted Titmouse, and White-breasted Nuthatch would be the next to show up in our province. The nuthatch came true in 2011, followed by more records for the island and SPM, but the other species have remained elusive. 

Face-to-face with a cold White-breasted Nuthatch, Stephenville, NL, 2023

📷Bobby Blackmore. 

Catherine Barrett upheld the tradition for some time by polling the birdwatching community in early January through the nf.birds Google Groups, until the site was shut down in 2024. Thankfully, The Bullbird is back up and running as of 2025, this time as a birding blog available online. To keep tradition alive, nine members of the birding community in Newfoundland and Labrador (including myself) were polled on their predictions for the next 10 species to be added to the provincial list.

Mactavish and Wells had to make their picks based on information they could glean from regional bird books, newsletters, and the American Birds magazine among other print publications. Nowadays, all of these and more are available providing endless information. So, before I detail the results of our informal survey below, feel free to play along. Go to either

eBird or birdtherock and discover for yourself NL’s complete list of 427 species as it stands and consult online or print sources to make an educated guess on the next 10 species that might show up in our province. 

Even with very informative sources and tons of experience on the subject, each person’s predictions were different; every person surveyed gave at least one answer that was not predicted by anyone else! In keeping with the format published by Dr. Dovekie, here’s a summary of the new species that were predicted by more than one person:

Species	# of votes  out of 9 voters
Wilson’s Plover	4
Tundra Bean-Goose	4
Pileated Woodpecker	4
Bell’s Vireo	4
Western Grebe	3
Green-tailed Towhee	3
Common Pochard	3
Meadow Pipit	3
House Finch	2
LeConte's Sparrow	2
Sharp-tailed Sandpiper	2
White-faced Storm-Petrel	2
Black-capped Petrel	2
Mediterranean Gull	2
Song Thrush	2
Sedge Wren	2
Mississippi Kite	2

These predictions are educated guesses: many of these species have been recorded in nearby regions (Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, Québec) or can be found in far western Europe and have tendencies to wander. The four species with 4/9 votes are:

Wilson’s Plover is an easily-identifiable shorebird found on both coasts of the U. S. and has been recorded in almost every state but in Canada it has only been documented in Southern Ontario, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and Québec, however, these eastern CA records are from as near to NL as Sable Island, Glace Bay Cape Breton, and Îles-de-la-Madeleine (herein “Î-d-l-M”), so it looks promising.

Tundra Bean-Goose is a large Eurasian gray goose, and a not-so-distant cousin of Pink-footed and Graylag Geese, both of which have made their way to Newfoundland and Labrador from Europe previously. Tundra Bean-Goose is hard to distinguish from Taiga Bean-Goose, and both are possibilities as vagrants to our province so any report of a Bean Goose will be scrutinized, but Tundra Bean-Goose records in North America far outnumber Taigas (including multiple records for NS and QC), so these bets are somewhat hedged.

Pileated Woodpeckers aren’t necessarily known for their vagrancy, but they are conspicuous and extremely common throughout southern Québec and the Maritime provinces, right up to Cape Breton Island. They make four peoples’ lists due to their proximity to Newfoundland and Labrador. It’s only a matter of time before one is spotted in Lab City, as one was found during a Breeding Bird Survey just 70 km southwest of there on Route 389 in Québec in 2011. The likelihood of one making the jump across the ocean to Newfoundland seems unlikely, but they’ve been found on Anticosti Island, and you never know what birds will do!

Bell’s Vireo is odd, in that it’s a midwestern species found in middle North America, primarily wintering in Mexico, yet in recent years there has been a trend of Northeasterly records. In fact, they have been almost annual in Nova Scotia in recent years. There were just a handful of records in Nova Scotia pre-COVID, with records from 2005, 2010, and 2 separate records in the fall of 2016, but in the past 5 years there have been five sightings of this species in Nova Scotia and one for Grand Manan Island, NB. Newfoundland or Labrador could be next!

The following two most popular guesses aren’t any more of a stretch, with records of Western Grebe and Green-tailed Towhee in NS, NB, and QC. Common Pochard, however, have only been documented in Quebec, and those two records constitute the only records for Eastern Canada (the only presumably wild Common Pochard records for eastern NA). Meadow Pipits have never even been recorded anywhere in North America, BUT they breed in Greenland and can presumably end up across the sea in Labrador any day now. 

The predictions with two votes apiece are detailed here:

House Finch isn’t native to eastern North America but is well-established there and can be found throughout the Maritimes and QC;

LeConte’s Sparrow is a long-awaited first (predicted by John Wells in 1986, above) that breed in Québec and have been observed in NB and NS;

Sharp-tailed Sandpiper is the Asian cousin of the Pectoral Sandpiper that breeds high in the Arctic, Far-East Russia, but is a casual vagrant on the North American continent with records as near as the Gaspé peninsula in the west and Ireland to our east;

White-faced Storm-petrel is found in many parts of the world (the P. m. hypoleuca subspecies breeds as close as the Salvage Islands of Portugal) and has been documented in Cape Breton during Hurricane Fiona, as well as off the Grand Banks of Newfoundland but not within NL waters yet;

Black-capped Petrel has also been found both at Cape Breton during Hurricane Fiona as well as far east of Newfoundland off the continental shelf, but this species breeds in the Caribbean and can be found year-round off the eastern seaboard of the U.S.;

Mediterranean Gull, a European gull species found in northwestern Africa and Macaronesia and as far west as the Azores. This species has had a remarkable expansion in range throughout Europe, with records now in Iceland. It could be found in NL sometime soon;

Song Thrush is a widespread Eurasian thrush with a single record for Canada from Saguenay, QC. This was the first record for this species in the Americas and took some by surprise, as it was expected Song Thrush would first show up in NL. It’s only a matter of time… Song Thrush could show up in American Robin flocks or at feeders (2 of the 3 records for them in North America are at bird feeders, the other was caught in a mist net on the magical Farallon Islands just a few months ago);

Sedge Wrens are regular in eastern North America, and breed in southern Ontario and Quebec. There are many records of this species in Maine, NB, NS, and even one in PEI. This species could get overlooked as a Marsh Wren if only seen at a glimpse, but hopefully since Marsh Wrens are uncommon throughout NL, someone would photograph or record audio of one if they came across it;

Mississippi Kite is a species from the US and Central and South America that NL birders could be familiar with if they’ve done some birdwatching on vacations down south. Oddly, this species shows up during migration periods along the northeastern states, and large numbers have appeared in Nova Scotia in 2022 and 2024. With records from last year in Canso, NS and Cape Gaspé, QC, birders in the Long Range mountains along the entire west coast of Newfoundland should keep an eye on any kettles of raptors. It may be time to set up some hawkwatches!

Lastly, there’s the birds only one person predicted. They are as follows, in no particular order: 

Atlantic Yellow-nosed Albatross	Southern hemisphere; NS, NS, QC, NU records (near Torngats)	Gray-crowned Rosy-Finch	Rockies; QC, NS records
Saltmarsh Sparrow	Eastern US to Maine; 1 NS record	Little Ringed Plover	Widespread in Old World; 1 Iceland record
Mountain Chickadee	Rockies; Nebraska nearest record	Tufted Titmouse	Common in Eastern US to QC & NB
Calliope Hummingbird	Rockies; Maine + 1 NS record	Yellow Rail	Widespread in CA & US; Gaspé + Î-d-l-M, NS, NS records
Eurasian Blackcap	Widespread in Old World, incl. Azores and Iceland; no NA records	Wood Stork	Common in South & East US; Gaspé + Î-d-l-M, NS, NS records
Western House-Martin	Widespread in Old World, incl. Azores and Iceland; 1 SPM record	Masked Booby	Tropical global distribution; 1 Maine record
Henslow’s Sparrow	Eastern US; 1 NS record	Steller’s Eider	Holarctic; NU & QC records, 1 NF unconfirmed
White Ibis	Eastern US to Ecuador; Gaspé + Î-d-l-M, NS, NS, PEI records	Brewer’s Sparrow	Rockies; Maine, QC (Gaspé), NS, NB records
Lark Bunting	Primarily Great Plains but widespread; many QC, NB, NS records	Tufted Puffin	North Pacific Ocean; one known individual in Maine
Swallow-tailed Kite	Eastern US to Argentina; QC, NS, NS, PEI records	Gray Kingbird	Caribbean; QC & NB records
Bicknell’s Thrush	Only found Northeastern US & CA, breeds in QC, NB, NS, even St. Paul Island records	California Gull	Western North America; QC, NB, NS records
Common Scoter	Europe; one QC record and some unconfirmed potential sightings	Trumpeter Swan	Widespread North America; 1 NS record
Bermuda Petrel	Only in Bermuda; some records off Massachusetts constitute NS records	Seaside Sparrow	Eastern US to Maine; NB, NS records
Western Yellow Wagtail	Widespread in Old World, incl. Azores and Iceland; no NA records	Scopoli’s Shearwater	North Atlantic Ocean; NB, NS, and nearby High Seas records
Common Sandpiper	Widespread in Old World; no NA records outside Alaska	Western Wood-Pewee	Western Americas; Maine, QC, NS records
Limpkin	Eastern US to Argentina; NS records	Acadian Flycatcher	Eastern US to Ecuador; QC, NS, NS records
Bonus
Cinnamon Teal	Widespread Americas; QC, NS, NB records, 1 Labrador record
Eastern Bluebird	Widespread North America; 1 SPM record, 1 Labrador record, 1 NF record, NL records questioned
White-breasted Nuthatch	Widespread North America; a handful of records for NF and SPM, but none for Labrador

Pileated Woodpecker in Ottawa, ON, 2022. 

📷 Bobby Blackmore

White Ibis

 in Miami, Florida, US, 2022. 

📷 Bobby Blackmore

Cinnamon Teal in Henderson, Nevada, US. 2022. 

📷 Bobby Blackmore

If there’s anything to be learned from the history of documented species in our province, it’s that you never know what will show up from year-to-year. If you the reader made any predictions for the province’s next species record that match any listed above, you may be in for a treat in the (hopefully) near future. Better yet, if your predictions do not match any given through our survey, perhaps we all might be in for a treat! I can already think of one or two possibilities that nobody mentioned. Regardless of what shows up in Newfoundland and Labrador next, it will certainly be special!

Keep an eye out,

Robert (Bobby) Blackmore